This morning I saw a poll based on a number of wholly hypothetical Presidential election matchups, and I thought it was interesting. The problem is that I can't remember where I saw it. Not providing a link is really bad blogging form, I know, but you're just going to have to take my word on what's below.
Essentially, this poll pitted Rudy Guiliani against each of three likely Democratic nominees -- Clinton, Obama, and John Edwards. Hillary fared best, beating Rudy handily. Barack Obama also won out in the poll, though by a narrower margin. John Edwards lost to Giuliani, albeit barely.
Obviously these polls are pretty meaningless and the results are based largely on name recognition. My gut tells me that Giuliani should perform well in these polls, at least as well or better than the rest of the GOP frontrunners. I have a couple of reasons for that. First, I think there's a strong anti-Republican sentiment in the country -- call it the Bush black cloud. I think Giuliani is associated least with the Republican establishment (probably because he's the least Republican....) and, in turn, is least clouded. He also has lots of name recognition. Granted, it's not always the positive kind of recognition, but I do think people remember his performance on 9/11 much more than his divorces or police commissioner.
That he lost to Obama and Clinton is interesting to me, but not all that much. 2008 is clearly the Democrats' election to lose, but they managed in the past. That he beat Edwards is more interesting to me. Edwards ran a national campaign before, so while he might not enjoy the instant recognition of Hillary, he certainly can't claim the dark horse mantle. When he ran with Kerry, he was considered the charasmatic of the pair. But I think it's safe to say that's not his title to claim this time. And like the rest of the viable field, save Obama, he was initially in favor of Iraq.
So can somebody tell me what this guy has going for him?
Analogcabin @ 2:53 PM ------------------------- I've broken my resolution at arguably the most interesting time in presidential politics since I've undertaken this new tack, but I blame my being out of the country. I will return with more today or tomorrow. Analogcabin @ 1:39 PM ------------------------- It's entirely possible that I haven't been paying enough attention before now, but I can't remember a single election cycle before this one in which a candidate for President has made an announcement that he's forming an exploratory committee. I'm not saying it hasn't happened. I'm just saying it seems like a big deal this time around. Obviously it's totally hollow - an announcement that you're going to make an announcement, except not that committal. But it is tantalizing, isn't it? I'd bet it would work with women. Next time I want it the bad way, I'm going to eschew all the pleading and simply announce I'm going to form an anal exploratory committee. Analogcabin @ 10:26 PM ------------------------- Oil is at a 20 month low, and yet my gas is still $2.60 a gallon. But truth be told, I don't really care. It's amazing what a little progress can do for your patience. Analogcabin @ 1:33 PM ------------------------- Now that I've endorsed Barack Obama, my many readers have flooded my inbox and comments with a lot of silly questions. I'm going to respond to some of those questions now, and in doing so, I will settle the issues for all time. Analogcabin @ 8:20 AM ------------------------- In a video posted to his site, Barack Obama announced the formation a presidential exploratory committee. Analogcabin @ 8:18 AM ------------------------- Like so many well-meaning fat guys before him, yesterday Senator Chris Dodd declared his intention to run. Analogcabin @ 8:17 AM ------------------------- I was listening to the Meet the Press podcast while walking the dog this morning. The guests were Senators Joe Biden and Lindsey Graham, and they were talking about the merits of escalation. Neither of them shed much light on the subject, but a few things occurred to me during the episode. Analogcabin @ 10:31 AM ------------------------- Former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris has been reduced to writing op-eds in the New York Post. While pathetic, he takes the opportunity to bring up an interesting point: Of the GOP biggies -- Romney, Giuliani, McCain, and Gingrich -- only Romney has been married a single time. Analogcabin @ 3:47 PM ------------------------- 2004. It seems like a lifetime ago. If you can't remember, those were the days when people thought John Kerry opening his mouth was a good idea and when Britney Spears' vagina was impossibly and maddeningly mysterious. So naïve. Anyway, back then we used to hear a lot about New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. He was frequently mentioned as a possible VP for Kerry, though we now know that dimples and growing up in a coal mine trump experience any day of the week. Analogcabin @ 12:36 PM ------------------------- While the Democrats and media are busy ringing out their panties and repeating the phrase "broken the marble ceiling" ad nauseum, Our Fearless Führer has appended one of his infamous signing statements to the postal reform act saying, essentially, that the government can read your mail whenever it thinks there might be something interesting in it. Analogcabin @ 8:09 AM ------------------------- The FBI's files on now dead Chief Justice William Rehnquist were declassified under the Freedom of Information Act, and they reveal much about the arch-conservative opponent of anti-discrimination law of every flavor. Analogcabin @ 8:19 AM ------------------------- I can see it now. Slow-motion images of American soldiers being blown to bits by an exploding "Sunni Side Up" pizza delivery van and creole jazz musicians waking up in a soggy cardboard box. Over it, the earnest voice of Bill Pullman, expertly portraying John Roberts, reads the Chief Justice's words, "...if judges' salaries are too low, [we] effectively serve for a term dictated by [our] financial position...." It's the best scene in the first act of "Bring It On 3: the Decline and Fall of the American Empire," and it's totally Oscar-worthy. Except that it'll be made in India. Analogcabin @ 8:07 AM ------------------------- Because it seems to be what the cool kids are doing, I'm going to go ahead and ignore Tom Vilsack and Dennis Kucinich entirely and say that John Edwards was the first serious Democrat to announce over the holiday. He chose to do it from New Orleans, presumably because the humidity gives him a nice all-over glisten. Analogcabin @ 12:43 PM ------------------------- As is the custom, I've made some resolutions this year and if I know you like I know I know you, you'd like to know what they are. So since you asked: Analogcabin @ 9:40 AM -------------------------
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Monday, January 29, 2007
Until then, go read some transcipts from the Libby thing. It's hilarious.
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Tuesday, January 23, 2007
But I'm getting away from myself. The real news is that this was a huge weekend for exploratory committees, with both Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson dipping their tootsies in the tub. Neither announcement was particularly remarkable - Hillary's video found her sitting on a very matronly couch, one would assume in an attempt to come across less like a harpy than she has... always. Richarson's was from the front seat of a 1982 Chevy, also occupied by his family, his campaign staff, and the President of Uganda.
Of course I jest.
In all seriousness, it's pretty remarkable to look at the Democratic contenders - they're really putting the race into this race. We've got a woman, an Hispanic, a black, and a gnome. The only nod to the traditional milquetoast WASPishness that usually dominates the field is John Edwards. I guess all it takes to make Americans set race and gender aside is two calamitous terms of a white Anglo President generally regarded is being one beer bong away from participating in the Special Olympics.
Setting aside the quipping for a moment, I'm actually a fairly big fan of Bill Richardson. My real issue with him is that I think he's more exciting on paper than he is in reality. I mean, I think you could actually make the case that he's qualified for the job. Granted, I've gone on record before as saying I think experience is over-rated (especially because I don't think there's anything that can prepare you for the shitstorm our next Commander-in-Chief will have to endure,) but if anyone's got the bona fides, it's Richardson. He's a former UN Ambassador, executive experience as Governor of New Mexico, etc. But for me, what I like about Richardson is that I think he could well represent the future of the party. He's from the west, he's Latino, and he's not going to get involved in a lot of the traditional liberal issues that I just don't think matter right now. I'm talking about things like gun control. The problem I have with Richardson is totally hollow and superficial, and I'll readily admit it. To me, he's just not Presidential. He's Vice-Presidential. That is to say, I think he seems like a good guy who would get things done, and who genuinely wants what's best for America. But I just don't feel inspired by him, and I really don't feel like he wants it. For me, the bottom line on Richardson is that I think he's going to make a great VP, and whoever gets him will be lucky to have him.
But Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. I just don't like Hillary. For me, she represents everything wrong with the Democratic party. She's against a lot, but not for much. I think Bill was terrific, and hugely underappreciated in his day. But she can't run on him, and she can't run away from him. I also think that, at the end of the day, she will never win a general. There are those who say the same about Obama, and that may well be true. But why I think his "electability" isn't as much of an issue as hers is a subject for another post.
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Thursday, January 18, 2007
Above, maybe not coming to a national park near you.
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Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Is Obama really electable?
I could write about how I think it's critical the top of the Democratic ticket never have voted for the war in Iraq. I could talk about how I think that the pop-culture phenom of Obama -- the thing that so many use as an excuse to dismiss him -- is proof of his electability. Or I could talk about how "experience" in Washington, especially over the last eight years, is going to be an albatross around the neck of every candidate with it. But for me, I think his electability really is about how he speaks.
Some on the left have begun to criticize his "hollow platitudes," but I think those speeches are exactly the kind of thing that moves the majority of Americans. Hope is important. The idea that we have more in common than we have differences is important. The idea that we can make things better is important. For better or for worse, the people who will elect the next president aren't that interested in the details. The will of the people is what drives politicians to figure out the details. Churchill's speech on Dunkirk wasn't about details, it was about moving the will of the people. MLK's "I Have a Dream" speech wasn't about details, and neither was JFK's inaugural. The Gettysburg Address wasn't about details, either.
The Democratic Party should know by now that a general election isn't going to be won by someone without charisma. For me, electability is about finding someone who can move the will of the people.
Aren't his race and name going to kill him?
I don't know. Maybe. But if we as a nation won't elect someone because they're black or because their middle name is Hussein, then we deserve another four years of George W. Bush.
Obama is spending too much time triangulating his positions and pandering to the center. The Democrats should nominate Jerry Brown.
Obama doesn't believe in everything I believe in. For example, I seriously doubt that he's going to legalize, regulate, and tax "soft" drugs. But the country isn't a fucking Miata that can turn on a dime. It's a gigantic 18-wheeler filled with anvils towing a 45-foot boat filled with really fat people, and it's going way over the speed limit. Bush has moved us so far to the right that we're hitting the rumble strips on the shoulder. But most people on this truck/boat/metaphor thing aren't comfortable just yanking the wheel left as much as we can. We need to safely move back into the right lane before we can move into the passing lane, and that's going to require someone who can convince all these fat bastards that it's safe to move back into the right lane.
In my opinion, Obama realizes that rather than bogging down fighting over things that simply aren't going to happen anytime soon, we should find things we all agree need to be changed and change them.
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Tuesday, January 16, 2007
I'm thrilled with the decision, for reasons I'll try to articulate over the coming months. For now, I encourage all of you to visit his site, sign up, and, if you can afford it, donate.
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Friday, January 12, 2007
Oh, wait. Run for President! Jeesh. Am I some shade of red!
Presumably, Dodd's chin will get the veep nod.
-RIMSHOT-
In all seriousness, pundits are pegging Dodd's chances near slim -- the first time Dodd's been anywhere close to slim in years.
-RIMSHOT-
Confidentially, Democratic advisors are saying that well-documented shenanigans of Dodd's decidedly plucky ex-wife, Molly, are likely to be an issue throughout his campaign.
Can you tell how seriously I'm taking the campaign of Dodd, above?
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Wednesday, January 10, 2007
- Is there anyone more blustery than Joe Biden? Maybe Donald Trump, but only maybe.
- They kept on referring to one another as "my good friend," but they said it in the way you'd call someone who gave you AIDS, "my good friend Marie, the Haitian prostitute."
- Lindsay Graham is repugnant on every level, but especially physically. He has the kind of face that makes you want to steal his lunch money. The only person I can think of who makes me feel that more strongly is Dennis Kucinich.
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Tuesday, January 09, 2007
I don't know what's worse, McCain, Giuliani, and Gingrich's multiple wives, or Mormom Romney -- the only one in the group who could justify polygamy -- not having an assortment.
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Monday, January 08, 2007
But despite his lack of dimples -- facial ones, anyway -- Richardson seems to be teeing himself up again. He's been relatively up front about his planned run in 2008. His intentions were first reported by the AP over the summer, and with this week's meetings on Darfur with the President of Sudan, it looks like Bill is getting ready to announce. Or not. You can't discount the possibility he actually wants to, like, help Africans. Not a popular position in America, but not an entirely illogical one.
This all assumes, of course, that the A's or Dodgers don't call him up.
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, above left, trying to make sense of the Sudanese pops, center, and clicks, right, that have left so many politicians before him utterly dumbfounded.
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Friday, January 05, 2007
It's interesting to note that this is the same strategy my mom employed in her late '80's War on My Sister Dating Boys, and I think we all know how that one turned out. But why learn from history? To be fair, you never know if that christmas card to Mohammad Islam might say, "See you at the car-bombing of the Golden Gate Bridge in mid-March, and a Happy New Year!" And I think we all agree that if we have nothing to hide, we shouldn't mind some civil servant reading our mail, listening to our calls, or peeking in our windows.
If you're as big a fan of Bush as I am, you know he's made extensive use of signing statements throughout his presidency. I think of it as his way of saying to everyone in the govenment and the country, "I'm going to do whatever I want, anyway, so you might want to lube up now." The American Bar Association put it a little differently, calling it "contrary to the rule of law and our constitutional system of separation of powers." Tomato or tomahto.
Vice President of the Postal Service Tom Day, looking swollen and greasy above, considers the Playboy spread of Battlestar Gallactica star Tricia Helfer to be exactly the kind of "exigent circumstances" the President's signing statement describes. He will search that magazine and he will seize his penis.
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Thursday, January 04, 2007
For starters, we learn that the Reagan administration, specifically recently departed UN Ambassador John Bolton in concert with Grandbigot Strom Thurmond, used the FBI to "investigate" potentially damaging witnesses who testified during his confirmation. We also learn that the Nixon appointee was addicted to prescription painkillers and, during a 1981 hospitalization to clean him up, he hallucinated and imagined that the CIA was plotting against him.
Clearly this man deserved a raise.
"What's that smell? It's the color orange, standing right over there! And it's singing 'Reelin' in the Years'!"
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Wednesday, January 03, 2007
What I'm talking about, of course, is Roberts' 2005 Year-End Report on the Federal Judiciary. For the first time in the history of the report it focused exclusively on a single topic -- "We want a raise." Roberts explains that, because of the dire financial straights in which our federal judges find themselves, our judiciary is at risk of losing independence.
In case you're wondering, the pay for federal judges ranges from $165K/year on the low end all the way up to Roberts' $212K/year. And for reference, the two-year (2004, 2005) average median income for households in Washington DC was just under $45K.
When you have the opportunity to make history every day, to insure that justice is done, and to generally make our country a better place, maybe a salary that's quaduple the median should be enough.
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Tuesday, January 02, 2007
I have to admit I'm a little puzzled by the eagerness with which most folks on the left are embracing Edwards, especially at a time when anti-Obama sentiment seems to be heating up. I'm not totally sure what it is that Edwards has over Obama, other than white skin and a name only slightly less innocuous than Whitey Whiteman. He's as much a litigator as he was last time and has no more experience now than he did then. I suppose it's that he's likeable and southern, but the certainly doesn't compare with Obama on the former and I don't know that the latter helps us all that much. More than anything else, I think the Edwards enthusiasm speaks to the hunger everyone on the left has for anyone other than Hillary. Maybe even Vilsack, but certainly not that ghoul Kucinich.
On the other hand, Edwards referring to the troop surge strategy as the "McCain doctrine" was pretty great.
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Resolution 1: Practice Mindfullness Meditation Regularly
Those of you who've read The Spoonbender before might be surprised by this one, and not because I come across as a Tasmanian devil of misplaced anger, godlessness, and a general lack of circumspection. No. Instead it's because you're frightened at the thought of what an even more focused me might be able to accomplish. And to be totally honest, I share your fear. Killing with a gaze isn't as great as it sounds.
Resolution 2: Return to Blogging Regularly
It's been quite a while since I blogged near-daily. My semi-retirement wasn't planned. In fact, a number of times I've tried to reinvigorate myself, and each of those times I've failed. I blame part of this on my lack of focus -- a shortcoming I hope to address with Resolution 1. I think the rest of the problem is that I've already skewered the entirety of our world so effectively that to continue on is to perfect upon perfection.
So how to proceed? I've decided that, starting today, I'll be blogging about the 2008 presidential election exclusively. Other than Man vs. Wild, it's what has interested me most lately, and it dovetails nicely with my third Resolution.
Resolution 3: Volunteer on a Presidential Candidate's Campaign
The events of the past years have finally convinced me that sitting on the sidelines hurling epithets is probably not going to result in the restoration of our civil liberties, and neither is my annual $100 donation to the ACLU. I have my doubts that stuffing "Obama in 08" envelopes will, either, but at least it will get me out of the house.
And with that, I leave you for the morning. The next time you hear from me, it will be in a spiritually-centered, promptly-posted entry about John Edwards' announcement.
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